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"Wireless
data - that's what I worry about the most," said Umesh Amin, Director of
New Technologies and Planning, AT&T Wireless Services AWS (Redmond, WA).
Explaining further, Umesh continued, "Long-term, AWS needs to be able to
not just become profitable, but derive our profits from consistent
revenue-streams, in order to remain healthy and competitive."
I had the pleasure of interviewing Umesh about two weeks ago at his Redmond,
WA-office and we discussed his views and predictions about the wireless
industry. "There is no question that excesses were committed by all
leading industry players, AWS included, during the tech boom era, circa
1998-2000. Hindsight is indeed 20-20, but you have to remember that this
business is highly capital intensive, and in order to remain competitive, AWS
had to engage in, what we believed at the time, viable business opportunities,
investments and acquisitions." [It is now widely believed that investing
in plants, not goodwill would have been among the more appropriate long-term,
sound corporate strategies.
Umesh has been a proponent of the industry's next-generation 3G (Third
Generation) wireless capabilities long before global, expensive 3G spectrum
license auctions took place in the US and elsewhere. At a September 1998
wireless conference in Bangalore, when asked about the adoption of wireless
technology, Umesh answered, "The driving force [for adoption of wireless
technology] both in the West and in India would be three-fold; market driver -
what do people want, return on investment - how long before I see a return on
my investment and competition - a company that enters late adopts a different
technology and lures subscribers because of a differentiating value
proposition."
Umesh's education includes a BSEE and MSEE, plus a mini-MBA from UPenn's
Wharton School. He holds seven wireless patents, has made over 40 presentations
at telecommunications conferences worldwide and is widely considered an
authoritative spokesperson in the wireless industry. Prior to joining McCaw
Cellular (now AWS) in 1994, Umesh spent many years at AT&T Bell Labs. Less
than two years ago, Umesh retired as Chairman Emeritus, Universal Wireless
Communication Consortium (now 3GAmericas). UWCC was a US-based non-profit
industry organization, whose membership included every major wireless services
and handset manufacturers. At AWS, Umesh leads a team responsible for new
services planning, managing the wireless research program, product development
and technology development alignment, evaluating new technologies, supporting
intellectual property management, and coordinating the Technology Development
Group budget activities, within the enterprise.
AWS is optimistic about the continuing wireless business opportunities, and
announced their Indian presence initially, with a Birla-AT&T (later
Birla-AT&T-Tata) joint venture, in 1996. Renamed in April 2002 as Idea
Cellular Limited, and headquartered in Pune, Idea is India's leading cellular
services provider. Its services span the entire cellular value chain from voice
to text. [During 2001-2002 Idea Cellular was India's fastest growing cellular
operator, with an annual growth rate of 135 percent]. When queried about Idea,
Umesh remarked, "To my knowledge, AWS is among a handful of international
wireless operators in India [and probably the only one], that continue to
consistently contribute fresh equity. We believe in the long-term, and
according to the Cellular Operators Association of India (COAI), the country's
wireless subscriber base is expected to double to 140m, within the next five
years." Among his many responsibilities, Umesh helped AWS develop
intimate, wireless business relationships in China. "India has the
potential of surpassing China in every aspect of the wireless business, but
only if we allow the markets to behave naturally and let simple capitalism -
supply and demand - dictate the outcome. Ad hoc industry regulations,
government interference and even predatory pricing paradigms cannot help build
sustainable business models, either for any particular firm or the industry, in
general."
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